Fantasy Baseball 2011 April Review

My team, "Boomer's Wallbangers", is off to a decent 2-1 start.  I thought I'd look at which players have been "surprises".  I'll define "steals" as players who are significantly over-performing their Average Draft Position (ADP), and 'disappointments" as those who have been under-performing.  Based on our H2H league's point system, the "steals" are listed below.  High numbers are good, meaning either lots of points, or they were drafted late.  A "-" for ADP means that, in the average ESPN league, these players were not drafted.


Catchers        Pts    ADP
Russel Martin    81     -   ("-" means undrafted)
Nick Hundley     69     -
Alex Avila       67     -


1B
Ike Davis        89    210


2B
Howie Kendrick   91    146
Neil Walker      80    166
Brian Roberts    70    150
D Espinosa       68    -
F Sanchez        67    -


3B
P. Polanco       84    203
Chipper Jones    73    202
Ryan Roberts     72     -
A Callapso       64     -


SS
Starlin Castro   82    151
A Cabrera        76    218
M Izturis        68     -
Angel Sanchez    68     -
Jed Lowrie       66     -


OF
Lance Berkman    99    204
Jonny Gomes      94     -
Jeff Francoeur   93     -
Alex Gordon      87     -
Sam Fuld         78     -
C. Maybin        73     -
B Boesch         73     -


SP
James Shields   100    204
K Lohse          96     -
A. Harang        82     -
M Harrison       82     -
I Kennedy        82    210
Randy Wolf       81    228
Josh Tomlin      80     -
J Masterson      79     -
A Ogando         79     -
AJ Burnett       76    211
J DeLaRosa       75    224
M Pineda         75    225
B Beachy         75     -
B McCarthy       73     -

Now, for the disappointments.  In many cases, these players are currently on the DL (marked with a *) or have spent much time on the DL.  Low numbers are bad - not many points or drafted early.


Catchers        Pts    ADP
Joe Mauer*      18     25
V Martinez*     46     43


1B
Adrian Gonzales 68     11
Adam Dunn       44     38


2B
Dustin Pedroia  69     28
Dan Uggla       65     34


3B
Evan Longoria*   1     5
R Zimmerman*    32    22


SS
Hanley Ramirez  43    2.5
Derek Jeter     45    56
Jimmy Rollins   56    64




OF
Carl Crawford   40     4
Josh Hamilton*  36    18
CarGo           61    11
Nelson Cruz     80    27
Matt Holliday   72    17
Jayson Werth    64    47




SP
Chris Carpenter 60    47
Tommy Hanson    61    49
Ubaldo Jimenez  24    47
F Liriano       14    86



Some thoughts.  Remember that these numbers are for less than one month of play, so this is still a small sample size.  That said...

First base has by far the fewest surprises.  Good place to spend an early draft pick if you want a solid pick, neither good nor bad.  In effect, at 1B, it's "reliable", you get what you pay for.  By contrast, catchers have the most surprises, both steals and disappointments.  IMO, catcher is not worth spending a high round draft pick, as you might be disappointed by an injury, and there seem to always be good steal catchers available for cheap.  Shortstop is also a spot where there seem to be many surprises.  Second base is kind of "medium".  Less surprises than at SS, but still some.  For catcher and middle infield, draft as best you can, but it is important to remain active with trades or on the waiver wire.

Third base and outfield have reasonably few surprises.  Remember that outfield has three times as many total players, so 6 "steals" is more like 2 steals at another position.   Most of the disappointments are due to injuries.  So, in general, you seem to get what you pay for here.

Starting pitcher is interesting.  There are a lot of positive "steals", pitchers who are doing far better than their ADP.  But relatively few "disappointments".  So, if you spend on a top-flite pitcher, you generally get what you pay for.  But plenty of bargains are there to be had.  Again, this is a key area to remain active with trade and on the waiver wire.

Will the New York Times make up their mind?

In late March, the New York Times ran an article saying that GE was using "aggressive...lobbying" and "innovative accounting" to avoid paying US taxes, and even claim a tax refund of billions.  There is some dispute as to the accuracy of the claims, but it's true that GE is taking advantage of tax laws to lower their tax burden.  Whether this is "fiduciary responsibility" or "exploiting loopholes" is debatable.

In today's editorials, the Times, as one would expect, blast Paul Ryan's budget proposal.  They blast it several times, including implicating it in any impending government shutdown, but I'm focusing on that one editorial.  I agree with the editorial that "serious deficit reduction requires everything to be on the table, including tax increases", something Ryan does not envision.  And Ryan dodges the whole third rail of Social Security.  However, the Times goes on to say (italics mine)

The Republican plan calls only for tax simplification. It would get rid of loopholes and reduce rates in a way that would not raise overall revenues but would invariably cut the tax bill of wealthy taxpayers for whom lower rates are more valuable than assorted loopholes.

The Times cannot run an article complaining that tax loopholes let GE get away with paying no taxes, then, just a couple of weeks later, run an editorial that belittles the value of loopholes.  This is intellectual dishonesty.

Instead of blanket condemnation of Ryan's proposals, how about "we like getting rid of the loopholes. but lets increase his top rate from 25% to X%", and actually propose something concrete and constructive.

A couple of the more conservative Times columnists offer a more balanced evaluation of the Ryan proposal, Ross Douhat and David Brooks.