Monday, October 11, 2010

California High Speed Rail - A Far Too Reasonable Proposal

The California High Speed Rail Project (official site, wikipedia) proposes to link San Francisco and Sacramento, via the Central Valley, to Los Angeles and San Diego.  But they are getting a lot of grief from cities along the San Francisco Peninsula, who don't want ugly, noisy, perhaps elevated tracks through their downtowns .  Tunnels are not currently on the proposals, due to cost.  You'll find lots of link with a Google search, here's one (see pages 20-29).  The cities dislike the proposal so much that they are suing.  Menlo Park is suing for the second time!

In an ideal, well-planned world, carrying the line the whole way to SF would be good.  But, in the real, poorly-planned world, does it really makes sense to waste years on lawsuits, impact statements and permits, then spend billions of dollars on construction through some of the priciest land in the country?  No.  Terminate the high-speed line in San Jose, not San Francisco.  That will easily save several billion, probably tens of billions.

Use some of that saved money to "spruce up" and electrify Caltrain, which is desperately needed for its survival, and estimated at less than a billion.  Use some of the saved money to accelerate the BART extension from Fremont to San Jose.

How much will this impact San Franciscans who want to take the train to L.A?  They will need an extra transfer, which is annoying and wastes some time - say 10 or 15 minutes with good scheduling.  The train ride will be slower.  Caltrain "baby bullet" trains take an hour to run from SF to SJ.  But electrification is thought to save 10 minutes or so from that.  BART takes 50 minute to run from downtown SF to Fremont. So getting to San Jose is probably a bit over an hour.  However, there are many BART stations in San Francisco, so for most people, they are much more convenient than getting to the train station which is at 4th and King on the far east side of town.  Bottom Line: Caltrain, with a transfer, is slightly over an hour, BART is more convenient for most but would take more like an hour and a half.

How long would a "High Speed" rail trip take?  Though the trains may be capable of a couple of hundred miles and hour, the actual speed along the Peninsula would be limited to around 90 MPH.  The distance as the crow flies is 42 miles,  Let's say half an hour.  But there are possible stops planned for SFO, Redwood City and/or Palo Alto.  With those, we're talking more like 40 minutes.

The net benefit of high speed rail along the Peninsula is small.  For San Franciscans using the downtown train station, they'd save about 20 minutes.  San Franciscans who live near BART and far from 4th and King could well save time by taking BART.

My proposal saves California taxpayers billions of dollars in money, and years in costly construction delays.  Plus, we get BART to San Jose, truly circling the Bay, and save and enhance Caltrain.

To the politicians and special interests in California - can you put reason and logic first?

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Paul Krugman Deliberately Misleads, Again

In today's editorial, Paul Krugman lashes out at NJ Governor Chris Christie for cancelling a 8.7 billion dollar tunnel project.  The project sounds like a good idea, and much of the money is coming from the Feds, (only three billion from NJ) so, if you just read his editorial, the project does sound completely rational.  What is this irrational, "destructive", and "incredibly foolish" Christie up to anyway?


A trivial Google search (I typed in "christie tunnel hudson river") reveals something that Krugman somehow fails to mention: The project is facing potential cost overruns of up to 5 Billion Dollars, all of which would be paid by the State of NJ.  The very first hit is entitled "NJ governor kills Hudson River tunnel due to costs".  Am I to believe that Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman didn't know that?  Or is it more likely that he deliberately intended to mislead his readers?


Another article states that the project may still move forward.
Christie and U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood will meet today “to discuss a path forward on the ARC tunnel project"
Presumably, Christie will seek a deal where the Feds will help pay for some of the overruns.  Suddenly, Christie is the one who seems eminently rational, not the misleading Krugman.