Fantasy Baseball 2012 Starts

Our Head-to-head points league had it's draft yesterday.  We use standard ESPN points, with the exceptions that strikeouts do not count -1 against a hitter, but errors do.  And a blown save is only -2, not -5.  So the player rankings are significantly different than the more typical "rotissery" 5x5 league.  I did a lot of practice mock drafts beforehand, and a lot of that effort was wasted because the points and ranking are so completely different.  But it got me familiar with the draft application so that I only hit the wrong key once.  Note that our league allows up to 12 starts per week, so having six, or even more, good starters is one of my strategies.  I tend to devalue relievers.

A few of us had glitches with the rankings in the draft application.  In my case, catchers were all listed at absurdly high numbers, e.g. Buster Posey was listed at some number in the 3000s.  Fortunately, my strategy was to pretty much ignore catchers unless they fell really low.  So I changed it to "ignore catchers completely" and pick up one in the last round.  Our rosters have 27 players, so we had 27 rounds.

My thoughts and comments round to round.  At least one of the teams, the Peregrine Falcons, missed the emails about the draft and she was represented by the computer "auto-picks".  And I think the Ewoks and Nerds may have been also computerized.  If so, the computer did a pretty good job for those two.  And you can submit your own ranking and strategy for the picks, which perhaps they did.

My thoughts and comments.  I had pick #2, too early for my taste.  Since it is a "snake" draft, that means that in alternating rounds I have the 2nd and the 9th pick.  My good friend, Dan Quill, (SF Marauders, he's a big Giants fan) had pick #1 (and then #10) so a lot of times we were competing for the same players.  PLayer #3, the Peregrine Falcons, was on my "other side" in some picks.  I based many of my picks on the ESPN projections for 2012, with some hunches and "I just like the player" thrown in.  As for SS, I had decided on either Tulo or "whomever looks decent sometime later on".

Round 1:  Dan picked Pujols, leaving me a tough call between Bautista and Cabrera (who rate very closely in the projections) but Bautista has the flexibility to play 3B and OF.  I figured I'd pick up a 1B much later in the draft, especially when three more (Cabrera, AGon, and Votto) went quickly.

Round 2: Andover Underdogs start the run on elite pitchers with Verlander, followed quickly by Halladay and Kershaw.  I'm seeing Prince Fielder fall down towards me.  Maybe?  The Falcons, picking before me, had the option of Longoria or Fielder.  They already had Miguel Cabrera, who will theoretically play 3B, so I figured they would take Fielder, in which case I'd have a really tough call - double up on 3B with Longoria (not a bad move, but a bit weird) or pick a pitcher.  But the Falcons took Longoria and I very happily picked Fielder as an unexpected offering at 1B.  As in round 1, a lot of top OF and 2B are picked.

Round 3: I was thinking King Felix or Lincecum, but SF Marauders of course picked Lincecum so I took Felix.  Lots of other elite pitchers (Lee, Weaver, Hamels) go.  IMO, Displaced Braves Fan gets a good deal on Curtis Granderson at #27.

Round 4,5: I was looking at Greinke and a 2B here.  I saw that Dan needed a 2B, and since I prefer Zobrist to Uggla (again, positional flexibility) I went with him.  I was pretty sure Dan would pick Uggla and Panda, which he did.  So, in round 5, I got Greinke.

Round 6,7: I wanted either Price or Shields, but I was scrolling down the list to find Matt Moore and mainly Bumgarner, who I wanted to grab before Dan.  When it came my time to pick, I messed up and picked Matt Moore instead of Shields.  Well, maybe Moore will live up to the hype!  If so, I'm a lucky genius.  If not, well, it's all for fun.  Round 7 I took Mark Reynolds, who scores very well in our system.  remember, Ks do not count against a batter!  I'm feeling real solid at the corners.  By now a lot of the top OF are gone so I figured if all else fails Reynolds can play 3B for me and I move Bautista to OF.

Round 8,9: Just in time, I pluck Bumgarner from the grasping fingers of the evil SF Marauders!  However, he grabs Chris Young, my planned pick for round 9 to start filling in the OF.  The other OF are unappealing (objectively, maybe I should take Heyward or Werth here, but they both have burned me in the past) so I pick another young and promising SP, Daniel Hudson, bringing me to five good SP.

Round 10,11: I was eyeing Nick Swisher, Neil Walker, Ackley, and Scutaro.  In round 10 I picked Ackley because he might become OF eligible (flexibility + covers the OF).  Dan, for the second time, grabs "my" OF, Swisher.  So I fill in SS (which was starting to get thin) with Scutaro, who I'm hoping has a good year at Coors.

Round 12,13: I was eyeing Gio Gonzales (I like the guy) and Carlos Lee.  Picked Gio, so of course Dan picks Lee.  To show we really do think alike, he then gets a good deal on Neil Walker.  Once again, the immediate OF offerings are bleak (Melky Cabrera was the best of a bad lot), so I pick yet another good pitcher, Anibel Sanchez.  I'm up to 7 good SP.

Round 14,15: I was eyeing Beltran, Carlos Pena (he also scores well in our system), Logan Morrison and Jeff Francoeur.  Picked Beltran, Dan picked Pena.  Which was probably good for me, forced me to pick another OF, Morrison.  I like the guy.

Round 16,17:  Jaime Garcia had fallen pretty far by my ratings.  Also looking at Torii Hunter, Josh Willingham, and Andrew Bailey.  But Torii plays for the Angels, ick.  So picked Garcia.  Dan picked Torii.  In round 17 I probably should have picked Josh Willingham for OF.  But, in a bit of frustration and a possible reach, picked Jesus Montero.  If he can hit or catch he will be a good pick at 17, if he can do both he will be a great pick.

Round 18,19: Finish off the outfield with a couple of borderline players with upside and downside, Kubel and Rasmus.  Hopefully one will pan out.  Pickings are getting thin, and lots of "borderline" pitchers like Lilly and McCarthy are going as the others fill their rosters.  Braves Fan picks Alex Rios which could be a great pick.

Round 20,21: Joe Nathan as my 1st closer.  He will get lots of chances in Texas.  Lucas Duda for 1B/OF.  Flexibility again.  But was also considering Austin Jackson and Moustakis.  In retrospect, I might have been better with Austin Jackson.

Round 22,23: I can barely recognize some of the names.  :-)  Since I'm an As fan, and still a bit dubious about my OF, I pick Yoenis Cespedes.  Then Derek Holland.  I like the guy, and I think he's a great value pick in round 23.  I now have 9 SP, so will have some flexibility to trade one.

Round 24,25: Kendrys Morales, Addison Reed.  These are my "fun" shoot for the stars picks.  Was also considering Sean Rodriquez as utility infielder, since Scutaro is my only SS.  But Scoot will become SS/2B so he could become my utility guy.  And utility guys are pretty easy to pick up on the waiver wire.

Round 26,27: Steven Drew as backup SS, though looks like he may start on the DL.  And, finally, a catcher, Russel Martin.