In MLB Playoffs, team payrolls matter

Here's a link to 2013 MLB team payrolls.

As for making the playoffs, if you include both wildcard teams, we had teams ranked 2, 4, 5, 12, 14, 17, 23,  26, 27, and 28 (Dodgers, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Reds, Braves, Indians, Pirates, Athletics, and Rays) make the playoffs.  This is an average of 15.8, almost exactly in the middle.  Five teams from the upper half and five from the lower half made the playoffs.  So, to a first approximation, team payroll was not correlated with the regular season, i.e. making the playoffs.

But, moving on into the second round, the League Championship Series, we have the Dodgers, Red Sox, Tigers and Cardinals: teams 2, 4, 5, and 12.  All teams in the top half of payroll.  So far in 2013, there is perfect correlation between the highest payroll and getting to the next round of the playoffs.

How about 2012?  Here's are the payrolls.  And, in case you have forgotten, here's what happened last year.  The teams making the playoffs were ranked 1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 15, 16, 19, 20, 30.  Six teams from the top half, four from the bottom.  An average of 12.8.  So payroll was very slightly correlated in 2012.  But, as for success, the teams making the final four were ranked 1, 5, 6, 9.  Again, all teams in the top half of payroll.  (#5 and #6 ended up in the World Series).


I attribute this to the nature of the layoffs, where big stars become more important.  Especially, in a 5 game series, expensive star pitchers, who, with the breaks between games, can appear two times.  Two years in a row Justin Verlander has earned his $20 million a year salary vs. the Athletics.  He's a great pitcher, a likely Hall of Famer.  This year, he was greatly aided by Max Scherzer ($6.7 M), Victor Martinez ($13 M), with help from Prince Fielder ($23 M) and Miguel Cabrera ($21 M).  These are all great players.  Throw in a key homerun by Jhonny Peralta ($6 M) and you are at nearly $90 million dollars, which is close to the median payroll for an entire MLB team.